Navigating the Cooling Housing Market

Sun 05 Nov 2023

Why ADM Residential is Your Trusted Ally

The housing market in Huddersfield and the surrounding regions has been undergoing a notable transformation. A shift that saw a robust house price growth of +9.2% a year ago has metamorphosed into a -1.1% dip today, marking the most significant deceleration since the financial upheaval of 2009. This cooling trend, initially a Southern England narrative, has now permeated lower-value markets across the country, escalating from affecting 1 in 20 to 4 in 5 housing markets within a short six-month span.

The brunt of this downturn has been felt markedly in the commuter belts around London and the South East, with towns like Colchester and Luton experiencing the steepest annual falls of -3.5% and -3.3% respectively. Nonetheless, amidst this cooling expanse, a silver lining emerges in the form of Halifax in Yorkshire, where the housing market defies the odds with a +3.6% growth rate. This is closer to home, and of much greater relevance and importance to our clients.

As we delve deeper into the dynamics, a 23% decrease in housing sales in 2023 as compared to 2022 reveals itself, largely propelled by the uptick in mortgage rates. This mortgage rate surge has instilled a pause in the buying zeal, a trend anticipated to hold steady with housing transactions projected to flatline at 1 million in 2024 according to Zoopla.

However, a potential alleviation in mortgage rates to around 4% in the first half of 2024 could rekindle the market activity, encouraging those who shelved their moving plans to reignite their pursuits.

New buyers bring different opportunities

The evolving market landscape also brings to light a new cadre of buyers. First-time buyers are poised to dominate the buyer's market in 2023, with cash buyers – a group often comprising mortgage-free sellers with years of residence under their belts – trailing closely.

This cash affluent cohort, accounting for a projected 1 in 3 sales in 2023, up from an average of 1 in 5 over the past five years, is ushering in a more pragmatic pricing outlook, which is likely to bolster transaction numbers in 2024.

However, the journey for upsizers, those eyeing larger homes necessitating bigger mortgages, is laden with a bit more trepidation. Higher mortgage rates are a formidable deterrent, yet a semblance of hope lies in the potential for lowered rates in 2024 to unfurl more opportunities for this group.

Peering into the horizon, the quest for improved housing affordability stands paramount to reignite buyer enthusiasm and spur sales. Despite the less than anticipated dip in house prices over 2023, the presence of 5% mortgage rates renders homeownership a somewhat hefty endeavor for the average household.

A deeper descent in house prices coupled with a gradual ascent in incomes is the desired recipe for a more affordable housing market. Zoopla foresees a scenario where a drop in mortgage rates to 4.5% by the close of 2024 would still harbor a -2% house price growth, with a sharper decline towards 4% potentially fueling sales activity.

What do Zoopla say about this movement?

Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla comments: “House prices have proven more resilient than many expected over the last year in response to higher mortgage rates. However, almost a quarter fewer people will move home due to greater uncertainty and less buying power.”

“Modest house price falls over 2023 mean it’s going to take longer for housing affordability to reset to a level where more people start to move home again. Income growth is finally increasing faster than inflation but mortgage rates remain stuck around 5% or higher. We believe that house prices will post further small falls, averaging 2%, over 2024 with 1m home moves.”

“Slow house price growth and rising incomes over the next 12-18 months will improve affordability to levels last seen a decade ago, creating the potential for a rebound in home moves as consumer confidence returns."

In these turbulent times, the expertise and local market acumen of ADM Residential stand as a beacon of guidance for homeowners looking to navigate the sale of their homes successfully. Our seasoned team, deeply entrenched in the Huddersfield housing market, is adept at crafting strategies that not only resonate with the current market pulse but also align with your unique home selling objectives.

As your trusted estate agency, ADM Residential is committed to delivering a tailored, informed, and seamless journey from listing to closing, ensuring your peace of mind every step of the way.

Contact ADM Residential to sell your Huddersfield home in 2023

Anyone who is keen to sell their home in Huddersfield should contact ADM Residential today. We are more than happy to provide you with a property valuation, which is the ideal starting point for anyone looking to enter the Huddersfield housing market with confidence.

This is a busy time of year in the local and national housing market, but we look forward to assisting you. Call on your leading Huddersfield estate agents today for help and guidance in the local market.